IRSG forecasts surplus NR output in 2012
The International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) has forecast a surplus production of natural rubber (NR) in 2012. Global NR production is forecast to rise 4.8% to 10.9 million tonnes in 2011 and 7.8% to 11.8 million tonnes in 2012 as a consequence of new production available from trees planted in the mid 2000s. Global NR consumption will touch 11.1 million tonnes in 2011 and 11.7 million tonnes in 2012. Consequently, the deficit of 159,000 tonnes in 2011 is expected to swing to a surplus of 81,000 tonnes in 2012, IRSG says.
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Global rubber consumption, output rise
Total global rubber consumption continued to increase in Q2 2011, rising to 25.4 million tonnes on an yearly (moving annual total) basis in June 2011, up from 25.2 million tonnes in March 2011. Total global rubber supply too maintained its rising trend in Q2 2011, touching 25.6 million tonnes on an yearly basis in June 2011. According to IRSG, global natural rubber (NR) consumption reached 10.9 million tonnes on an yearly basis in June 2011, up from 10.8 million tonnes over March 2011.
Global synthetic rubber (SR) consumption is estimated at 14.5 million tonnes on an yearly basis in June 2011. IRSG now expects total rubber consumption to reach 25.8 million tonnes in 2011 and 27.5 million tonnes in 2012.
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India’s NR shortage to touch 75,000 tonnes
There will be a shortfall of 75,000 tonnes of natural rubber in India during 2011-12, according to Rubber Board, India. According to Sheela Thomas, Chairman of the Indian Rubber Board, rubber production is set to increase to 902,000 tonnes during 2011-12, representing a 4.6% growth over last year. The rubber products industry will need over 977,000 tonnes, which is well over the anticipated supplies.
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10.2% growth in SR output
Global SR supply was 3.8 million tonnes in Q2 2011, a 10.2% growth, and the total production increased to 14.9 million tonnes on a yearly basis in June 2011.
Production of SR at a faster rate than consumption has left a surplus of 318,000 tonnes in H1 2011 on an annual basis. As a result, the implied SR stocks level increased, rising to 3.558 million tonnes on an annual basis in June 2011.
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Marginal rise in global share of SR
The global share of SR in total rubber consumption increased marginally in Q2 2011, rising to 57.2% on an annual basis in June 2011 from 57.0% in March 2011. The relative price of NR/SR that still favours greater use of SR and increased capacity of SR are the two main reasons behind the growth in global share of SR in total rubber consumption, according to IRSG.
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Fall in latex output, consumption
Global NR latex consumption dropped by 5% on an annual basis in June 2011 to 1.3 million tonnes compared to the same period in 2010, says IRSG. NR latex production from major producers also dropped by 12% in H1 2011 compared to same period in 2010.
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NR export growth slows down
Total export of NR from members of the ANRPC is likely to grow only at 2.6% to 7.67 million tonnes this year as against the 3.1% rate expected earlier and 10.4% rate attained during 2010. The growth rate achieved during the period from January to October 2011 is 2.2% ( 6.27 million tonnes) as against the 11.4% rate achieved during the corresponding period last year, ANRPC says. |
